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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.