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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."